| D Day in Copenhagen : Fiona Hall's update from Denmark |
Today is - at least officially - the final day of COP 15. This evening we are due to find out whether the world's leaders are prepared to go the extra mile and put in place the measures needed to keep global warming below 2C. Many suspect that it will be morning before we actually have a text, good or bad. As is the way with all these things, the messages are mixed. Progress is being made - not least on forestry issues - and China, which had been saying that any deal was impossible, has now softened its tone. On the other hand, the Chinese are still said to be resisting mechanisms that will measure its progress in cutting carbon emissions and America is playing coy too. President Obama has just given a speech saying that the US is ready to move, but he hasn't put a cash value on what that means. The EU has done more than most to combat climate change, but we need our negotiators to be clear with other world leaders that they are ready and willing to commit to a 30% cut in emissions by 2020 - and that this should be open to revision if the science about what is needed moves on. For those of us that would really like a 40% cut, that point is vital. Interesting meeting this morning with other MEPs and the EU's Swedish presidency, which speaks for the European Union here in Copenhagen. Asked what Europe's red lines are, they suggested: 1. All developed countries must sign up to a Kyoto level of bindingness 2. All emerging countries must sign up to real and appropriate commitments 3. There must be proper monitoring, reporting and verification of emission cuts - And all of this should be with the aim of keeping warming below 2C, open to revision as the science moves on. That seems fair to me. More to follow....
D DAY IN COPENHAGEN PART II - AND IT'S NOT GOOD - 18 DECEMBER 2009 Spirits are rather low here this evening. America and China produce over 50% of the world's carbon emissions: any deal here tonight will require them to play ball. Unfortunately, there appears to be stalemate. Prior to today the Americans had shown us a bit of ankle, suggesting that they might come forward with an offer of more money and concrete commitments. Unfortunately that looks like it was all a bit of a tease. President Obama instead used his speech simply to assert that the US is ready to do a deal if China and others are prepared to be transparent. Unfortunately China is refusing to budge. There's a bit of a culture clash here as the Chinese perceive international monitoring of their efforts as "snooping" and a breach of sovereignty: or at least that is the reason they are giving for refusing to open up. That's a terrible pity. China has to understand that economic development should go hand in hand with political maturity. It is in their own interests to play a full role in international affairs, including the fight against climate change. The same is true for other emerging major economies. As for the EU, Barroso gave a downbeat speech before chairing an EU heads of government meeting this afternoon. I tried to sneak in - actually, I did sneak in! Barroso, Merkel and Sarkozy took their seats. Miliband stood in for Brown. I tried to look like part of the furniture. So far, so good. Then it became clear that the meeting was quite literally one plus one i.e. each minister had a seat around the table, with one seat behind for their member of staff. So the few of us left standing had to sidle out as nonchalantly as we could. Still, interesting to see how these things work. A quick chat with Jon Snow and some journos from the Beeb - all quite sceptical about the outcome. Just now I got a leaked "Copenhagen Accord" that the heads of government are trying to cobble together instead of a legal deal. It doesn't look too promising at the moment - very light on specifics, big question marks on where the cash will come from, and no commitment from China to adopt measurable, verifiable and reportable practices. An exit strategy more than an agreement. Is this going to be it? Even the leaders' "family photograph" has been postponed indefinitely. More to follow...
D DAY -1 IN COPENHAGEN: CONFUSION ABOUNDS - 19 DECEMBER 2009
What a mess. After yesterday afternoon's impasse on an international agreement, President Obama took matters into his own hands, struck a deal with China, India, Brazil and South Africa - and promptly left the country. It's leadership of a sort - but, sadly, in the wrong direction. The rest of the world has been offered a watered-down Accord which - as it stands - has no chance of meeting its own aspiration of limiting the global temperature rise to 2C. The 2050 emissions targets have been edited out, as has any mention of revising to a 1.5C degree limit if the science requires it. And funding remains uncertain. But the message is clear: take it or leave it. Perhaps this accord is better than nothing. There is recognition that developing countries need an annual $100 bn in adaptation and mitigation aid by 2020 and there's a proposed mechanism to verify developed economies' emissions cuts. This is a base on which to build over the coming months. But it is essential that those countries which recognise the need for a stronger - and truly global - deal regroup and make it happen. There is a sobering lesson in all of this. The US and China must find a way to work together and with the rest of the world. If they don't, global progress is impossible. Now we hear that the plenary session - which is still sitting this morning - has recognised the US-brokered deal. But to become an official UN agreement, all 193 nations must endorse it and it's not clear that will happen.
One thing I am quite clear about. The fight to get a global deal that really does combat climate change must continue. There is no alternative.
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